Friday v3 update · Pipeline re-run
Model retrained Friday on R11-settled data. Headline didn't change: Warriors heavy favourites. Player markets: Jacob Laban (Warriors 2nd row) remains the headline pick at $5.25 — but the edge has compressed from +2.9pp Tuesday to +0.6pp Friday as the market firmed. HIGH evidence quality, narrower margin. Three picks logged to the calibration trail.
Honest model caveat: our outcomes work has Dragons +11 — a known home-team bias we're already working on for the next iteration. Don't bet match-line off that number. Our win-probability read correctly lands on Warriors, which is what the public narrative reflects.
The story of this game
The Warriors arrive as $1.27 favourites and our work doesn't argue. Where this game gets interesting is the player markets — the Warriors are at full strength, the Dragons' middle defence is leaky against second rowers, and a couple of New Zealand's outside men look priced too long for what we expect.
If the Warriors put 30+ on the board, you'll know early — they're a side that builds a lead and lets it work. The longer the Dragons stay within two scores, the more nervous Auckland gets.
Our picks in this game
Jacob Laban
Wayde Egan
Notable for this game
- Warriors at full strength.
- Wayde Egan starting at hooker — the position our work has the Dragons' middle leakiest against.
What to watch
This is where Wayde Egan (hooker) and Jacob Laban (2nd row) feature for us — both at speculative size, both backed by what we see in the matchup more than what they've done in 2026 to date.
Named 17 (per the team sheets)
Dragons
- Clinton Gutherson (1·Fullback)
- Setu Tu (2·Winger)
- Jaydn Su'A (3·Centre)
- Valentine Holmes (4·Centre)
- Christian Tuipulotu (5·Winger)
- Daniel Atkinson (6·Five-Eighth)
- Kyle Flanagan (7·Halfback)
- Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga (8·Prop)
- Damien Cook (9·Hooker)
- Toby Couchman (10·Prop)
- Dylan Egan (11·2nd Row)
- Hamish Stewart (12·2nd Row)
- Ryan Couchman (13·Lock)
Warriors
- Taine Tuaupiki (1·Fullback)
- Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (2·Winger)
- Ali Leiataua (3·Centre)
- Adam Pompey (4·Centre)
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira (5·Winger)
- Chanel Harris-Tavita (6·Five-Eighth)
- Te Maire Martin (7·Halfback)
- James Fisher-Harris (8·Prop)
- Wayde Egan (9·Hooker)
- Jackson Ford (10·Prop)
- Leka Halasima (11·2nd Row)
- Jacob Laban (12·2nd Row)
- Erin Clark (13·Lock)