Round 13 · Context
After a tough R12
R12 was a difficult round — 15.4% hit rate, −37.85% ROI across 52 picks. R11 had been the opposite (+40.6%). The honest read: we are at n=75 combined picks, which is not a large enough sample to draw firm conclusions either way. We are in the expected variance band for a model at this stage. The discipline stays the same: log every pick, settle every result, report the calibration number — good or bad.
Cumulative calibration (R11–R12)
R11: 15/37 picks, +40.6% ROI · R12: 8/52 picks, −37.85% ROI · Combined: n=75, insufficient for strong claims either direction. We continue to track and report.
Round 13 · Highest conviction
4 HIGH-tier picks
These four picks have real observed attacker history, uncapped defensive rates, and clear positive EV at both best and conservative price. Recommended at 2 units each.
| Player | Position | Team | Fixture | Price | EV | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaize Talagi | Five-Eighth | Panthers | Panthers v Warriors | $3.50 | 1.29 | TAB |
| Siua Wong | 2nd Row | Roosters | Storm v Roosters | $4.60 | 1.20 | BetRight |
| Joash Papalii | Five-Eighth | Eels | Knights v Eels | $4.60 | 1.42 | Ladbrokes |
| Dane Gagai | Centre | Knights | Knights v Eels | $3.25 | 1.22 | TAB |
Best value pick of the round
Liam Sutton (Cowboys · Five-Eighth · $4.75 · EV 1.72 @ TAB) — highest raw EV across all 28 picks, classified LOW due to attacker history sample size. If you're playing a single speculative unit, this is the one.
Round 13 · Match by match
Per-match previews
Plain-English read on every R13 fixture — the story, the picks, the Named 17s.
Round 13 · Full pick list
All 28 picks
Sorted by tier then EV. Prices sourced from the-odds-api snapshot taken 2026-05-26. Check current prices before betting — markets move.
| Tier | Player | Pos | Team | Fixture | Price | EV | Book | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | Blaize Talagi | Five-Eighth | Panthers | Panthers v Warriors | $3.50 | 1.29 | TAB | 2u |
| HIGH | Joash Papalii | Five-Eighth | Eels | Knights v Eels | $4.60 | 1.42 | Ladbrokes | 2u |
| HIGH | Dane Gagai | Centre | Knights | Knights v Eels | $3.25 | 1.22 | TAB | 2u |
| HIGH | Siua Wong | 2nd Row | Roosters | Storm v Roosters | $4.60 | 1.20 | BetRight | 2u |
| MED | Jake Clifford | Halfback | Cowboys | Raiders v Cowboys | $3.75 | 1.22 | TAB | 1.5u |
| MED | Phoenix Crossland | Hooker | Knights | Knights v Eels | $6.00 | 1.67 | TAB | 1.5u |
| MED | Jake Trbojevic | Lock | Sea Eagles | Sharks v Sea Eagles | $13.00 | 1.48 | PointsBet | 1.5u |
| LOW | Liam Sutton | Five-Eighth | Cowboys | Raiders v Cowboys | $4.75 | 1.72 | TAB | 1u |
| LOW | Tallyn Da Silva | Hooker | Eels | Knights v Eels | $7.00 | 1.64 | Ladbrokes | 1u |
| LOW | Taniela Paseka | Prop | Sea Eagles | Sharks v Sea Eagles | $13.00 | 1.59 | PointsBet | 1u |
| LOW | Reece Robson | Hooker | Roosters | Storm v Roosters | $7.50 | 1.55 | Betr | 1u |
| LOW | Jackson Shereb | 2nd Row | Sea Eagles | Sharks v Sea Eagles | $5.75 | 1.57 | Ladbrokes | 1u |
| LOW | Reuben Cotter | Lock | Cowboys | Raiders v Cowboys | $8.00 | 1.45 | Betr | 1u |
| LOW | Wayde Egan | Hooker | Warriors | Panthers v Warriors | $7.50 | 1.47 | TAB | 1u |
| LOW | Jake Simpkin | Hooker | Sea Eagles | Sharks v Sea Eagles | $8.00 | 1.42 | TAB | 1u |
| LOW | Jackson Ford | Prop | Warriors | Panthers v Warriors | $7.50 | 1.42 | TAB | 1u |
| LOW | Jack Williams | 2nd Row | Eels | Knights v Eels | $10.00 | 1.47 | TAB | 1u |
| LOW | Daly Cherry-Evans | Five-Eighth | Roosters | Storm v Roosters | $5.20 | 1.33 | Ladbrokes | 1u |
| LOW | Te Maire Martin | Halfback | Warriors | Panthers v Warriors | $5.00 | 1.39 | Betr | 1u |
| LOW | Victor Radley | Lock | Roosters | Storm v Roosters | $8.00 | 1.35 | TAB | 1u |
| LOW | Jacob Laban | 2nd Row | Warriors | Panthers v Warriors | $6.00 | 1.37 | Betr | 1u |
| LOW | Josh King | Prop | Storm | Storm v Roosters | $9.00 | 1.37 | PointsBet | 1u |
| LOW | Jacob Saifiti | Prop | Knights | Knights v Eels | $9.50 | 1.36 | PointsBet | 1u |
| LOW | Ben Trbojevic | 2nd Row | Sea Eagles | Sharks v Sea Eagles | $5.20 | 1.24 | Ladbrokes | 1u |
| LOW | Alex Twal | Lock | Wests Tigers | Wests Tigers v Bulldogs | $12.00 | 1.31 | PointsBet | 1u |
| LOW | Jamal Fogarty | Halfback | Sea Eagles | Sharks v Sea Eagles | $5.00 | 1.29 | Betr | 1u |
| LOW | Leo Thompson | Prop | Bulldogs | Wests Tigers v Bulldogs | $9.00 | 1.25 | PointsBet | 1u |
| LOW | Cameron McInnes | Lock | Sharks | Sharks v Sea Eagles | $10.00 | 1.23 | PointsBet | 1u |
Prices from the-odds-api snapshot 2026-05-26. Verify current price before placing. EV = p_cal × best_price. Stake: HIGH 2u · MED 1.5u · LOW 1u.
Round 13 · Caveats
What this is and isn't
Informational analysis only
These are model outputs, not financial advice and not a recommendation to bet. We don't know your financial situation. NRL outcomes are uncertain. Past model performance does not predict future results.
The model uses NRL player-level try-scoring history (BigQuery, R1–R12 2026 + full 2025) to estimate probability of scoring, then compares against market prices. Edges exist when the model probability exceeds the implied market probability by a margin that clears our threshold.
Known limitations R13: Outcomes model has a persistent home-team bias (7/7 R13 fixtures favour home in the H2H model). Don't bet match H2H or totals from model output — those numbers are analyst-view only, not model-derived.
Broncos v Dragons: no player-prop odds were returned by our data feed for this fixture. All tryscorer action sitting out.