Round 13 · Match Preview

Knights v Eels

⏰ Sat 30 May · 3:00pm AEST 🏟 McDonald Jones Stadium
H2H (best price, Mon 26 May)
Knights $1.22 · Eels $4.40
Our read
Knights heavy favourites at home — Ponga and Brown the key spine. Eels value is in the try-scorer market, not H2H.

The story of this game

The market says it plainly — Newcastle at home are a heavy proposition. Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Brown form one of the competition's more dangerous spine combinations, and the Knights are coming off a bye with extra preparation time. The Eels are rebuilding — Joash Papalii at five-eighth is an experiment mid-season, though one that's generating scoring opportunities. The value in this fixture is entirely in the tryscorer market, not the head-to-head.

Model picks

Model picks — 6 total

2 HIGH: Joash Papalii ($4.60), Dane Gagai ($3.25)
1 MEDIUM: Phoenix Crossland ($6.00)
3 LOW: Tallyn Da Silva ($7.00), Jack Williams ($10.00), Jacob Saifiti ($9.50)

1

Joash Papalii

Five-Eighth · Eels
Papalii at five-eighth creates at close range. Knights concede above average to the 6 position. Best value on the slate for this fixture.
$4.60
2 units
HIGH @ ladbrokes
2

Dane Gagai

Centre · Knights
Gagai remains a reliable try-scorer despite age — Eels concede to centres at a solid clip. Knights likely to have plenty of ball.
$3.25
2 units
HIGH @ TAB
3

Phoenix Crossland

Hooker · Knights
Strong EV but capped rate on Eels defensive numbers. Crossland active in short-range sets as a running hooker.
$6.00
1.5 units
MEDIUM @ TAB
4

Tallyn Da Silva

Hooker · Eels
High EV hooker edge. Da Silva plays a mobile game; Knights concede to hookers at above-average rate.
$7.00
1 unit
LOW @ ladbrokes
5

Jack Williams

2nd Row · Eels
Long price with genuine edge. Williams is active in short-range play. Single unit only.
$10.00
1 unit
LOW @ TAB
6

Jacob Saifiti

Prop · Knights
Eels concede to props at a tick above average. Saifiti earns short-range opportunities from the home set.
$9.50
1 unit
LOW @ PointsBet

What to watch

Papalii's involvement near the line — if the Eels can stay competitive into the second half, his active role at five-eighth gives him genuine try-scoring chances against tired defenders. Dane Gagai at centre is the reliable option on the host side — he's been here before and knows how to finish.

Named 17

Knights

  1. Kalyn Ponga (1·Fullback)
  2. Dominic Young (2·Winger)
  3. Dane Gagai (3·Centre)
  4. Fletcher Sharpe (4·Centre)
  5. Greg Marzhew (5·Winger)
  6. Sandon Smith (6·Five-Eighth)
  7. Dylan Brown (7·Halfback)
  8. Jacob Saifiti (8·Prop)
  9. Phoenix Crossland (9·Hooker)
  10. Trey Mooney (10·Prop)
  11. Dylan Lucas (11·2nd Row)
  12. Jermaine McEwen (12·2nd Row)
  13. Mat Croker (13·Lock)

Eels

  1. Isaiah Iongi (1·Fullback)
  2. Brian Kelly (2·Winger)
  3. Jordan Samrani (3·Centre)
  4. Sean Russell (4·Centre)
  5. Josh Addo-Carr (5·Winger)
  6. Joash Papalii (6·Five-Eighth)
  7. Ronald Volkman (7·Halfback)
  8. Luca Moretti (8·Prop)
  9. Tallyn Da Silva (9·Hooker)
  10. Jack Williams (10·Prop)
  11. Kelma Tuilagi (11·2nd Row)
  12. Kitione Kautoga (12·2nd Row)
  13. Jack De Belin (13·Lock)
← Prev match
Sharks v Sea Eagles

18+Informational analysis only — not financial advice and not a recommendation to bet.

Past performance does not predict future results. If gambling is affecting your life, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.