The story of this game
Interesting underdog slate. The Raiders are home favourites, but our model finds multiple Cowboys edges in the tryscorer markets — specifically in the halves and five-eighth positions where Canberra have conceded at an elevated rate. Liam Sutton carries the highest raw EV of any pick across the whole round (EV 1.72 at $4.75). Cowboys as an underdog team showing model value in multiple positions is a pattern worth noting.
Model picks
Model picks — 3 total
1 MEDIUM: Jake Clifford ($3.75)
2 LOW: Liam Sutton ($4.75), Reuben Cotter ($8.00)
Jake Clifford
Liam Sutton
Reuben Cotter
What to watch
Ethan Strange at five-eighth for the Raiders in the context of the Cowboys' defensive edge at 6. If the Raiders' new spine combination clicks, Strange's creativity near the line could neutralise the Cowboys tryscorer value. If it's a grind, Sutton and Clifford have the edge.
Named 17
Raiders
- Kaeo Weekes (1·Fullback)
- Savelio Tamale (2·Winger)
- Sebastian Kris (3·Centre)
- Matthew Timoko (4·Centre)
- Xavier Savage (5·Winger)
- Ethan Strange (6·Five-Eighth)
- Ethan Sanders (7·Halfback)
- Corey Horsburgh (8·Prop)
- Tom Starling (9·Hooker)
- Joseph Tapine (10·Prop)
- Hudson Young (11·2nd Row)
- Zac Hosking (12·2nd Row)
- Daine Laurie (13·Lock)
Cowboys
- Scott Drinkwater (1·Fullback)
- Zac Laybutt (2·Winger)
- Jaxon Purdue (3·Centre)
- Tom Chester (4·Centre)
- Murray Taulagi (5·Winger)
- Liam Sutton (6·Five-Eighth)
- Jake Clifford (7·Halfback)
- Thomas Mikaele (8·Prop)
- Reed Mahoney (9·Hooker)
- Jason Taumalolo (10·Prop)
- Heilum Luki (11·2nd Row)
- Sam McIntyre (12·2nd Row)
- Reuben Cotter (13·Lock)